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by: Fang Cai, John Giles, Philip O'Keefe, Dewen Wang
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This volume first examines projected demographic changes that will
affect the economic well-being of China's rural elderly over the
next twenty years, taking into account both China's sharp
demographic transition and the continued migration of young adults into
cities. The projected old age dependency ratio of 34 percent in
China's rural areas by 2030 suggests that support of the elderly is
likely to be an increasing burden on China's families over the next
twenty years.
The book next documents the sources of financial support, poverty
incidence and vulnerability of the rural elderly since the early 1990s.
China's rural elderly have been consistently poorer and more
vulnerable to poverty than both working age households and the urban
elderly. In contrast to the urban elderly who frequently have pension
support, the rural elderly typically rely either on their own labor
income or financial support from adult children. A substantial share of
China’s rural elderly continue to work well beyond the age 70,
but labor as a primary source of support falls sharply during their
60s. Additional evidence suggests that the rural elderly work well
beyond 60 out of necessity and only stop working when physically
incapacitated. While average transfers from adult children to elderly
parents are sufficient to keep them out of poverty, adult migrant
children with uncertain income create the risk that transfers will not
be sufficient to keep some rural elderly out of poverty.
The final sections of the book review experiences with rural
pensions during the 1990s and 2000s and draws out the lessons which
have informed the design of a new national rural pension scheme. Among
the many issues discussed, the report highlights the importance of
providing incentives for participation in the pension scheme and
important issues related to the portability of pensions for a mobile
population.
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